How Real is China Threat in Laddakh !

In a replay action of October 1962 when PLA after capturing Twang took two week to extend road through LAC to Tawang, now in 2020 too PLA has intruded in to Bharat territory beyond its own claimed lines, in at five points in Ladakh, (four along the Galwan River and one in Finger area near the Pangong Lake) in the western  sector and at one location  in the eastern sector ( Naku La in north Sikkim). As per reports Chinese have deployed more than 5,000 troops over three kilometres of Bharat territory. Chinese troops are deployed along the Galwan nalah, from point 14 to Gogra mountain thus threatening 255 km long Darbuk- Shyok- Daulat Beg Oldi (DSDBO) road, a vital link for the military operations.

 Fingers are protruding folds of the mountain in the lake’s northern bank. Bharat claims it’s area till Finger 8 but controls area only up to Finger 4 of total 9 Fingers, while China claims that LAC passes through Finger 2. Chinese have moved heavy trucks and equipment, pitched tents, dug trenches and bunkers forcing Bharat to respond with “mirror deployment”.  Though since 1967 there has never been a bullet fired between these two armies but on 5 May 20 saw hand to hand scuffle and PLA troops used nail-studded wooden batons seriously injuring soldiers of Bharat.

Two days after the Chinese foreign minister stated on last Wednesday that the border areas situation is overall stable and controllable, but as per satellite aerial inputs it is evident that PLA is consolidating it’s defences by constructing concrete bunkers at four places in Galwan, Gogra Top and on India’s side of the LAC on the North bank of the Pangong . Chinese also have been seen extending roads across the LAC to Gogra in the Galwan valley while completed a road on the Pangong north bank of about 3 Km in length connecting Finger 5 to Finger 8.

PLA has displayed it’s intentions by moving armoured vehicles and artillery guns to the LAC, close to their intrusion points, ensuring fire support to their troops who had crossed the LAC.

Is it conceivable, that the fog of war has been created to relieve some domestic pressure ?

China has activated simultaneously multiple fronts of conflict with its neighbours both at land and sea which is evident from conducting a military exercise near Taiwan simulating the seizure of Taiwan held Prate’s island off South China Sea, cracking down on pro-democracy dissidents in Hong Kong , aggressive postures in South China Sea and locking horns with Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Australia. Its challenging US supremacy and intruding across LAC in large numbers into areas that were considered well-settled by both sides.

The current standoff and recent incursions at simultaneous multiple points appear to be different from the routine errors since this time Chinese troops have displayed more aggression, engaged in physical skirmishes and disregarded agreed protocols. Areas such as Galwan and Naku La were so far considered well-settled and there has never been a dispute about the LAC alignment in the area. This time Chinese have laid claims over the entire Galwan river valley deviating from norms .

Bharat’s building a branch road off the crucial 255-km Darbukh-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DSDBO) which moves across a bridge connecting to the Galwan Point ( dominating) feature overlooking the DSDBO road. Connecting it with link gives tremendous advantage to swiftly move troops and reinforcements if need arise.  China on its side, lacks a similar road parallel to LAC like DSDBO which can facilitate any lateral movement of troops along the Chinese side of the LAC.

Bharat’s “61 strategic roads plan” spreading across Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, will be completed soon, adding up to 3,417 km in length of roads all along the LAC. China had been opposing building of even civilian infrastructure, Bharat’s effort to increase access to these remote locations through targeted road-building entirely on its own side of the LAC is troubling China.

5 Aug 19 India’s decision to turn Ladakh into a Union Territory has a direct impact on China’s legal claim over Xi chin and future of CPEC in Gilgit Baltistan. Hence, recent Chinese intrusions into multiple points at Ladakh sector could be part of China’s long term plan to expand and consolidate it’s claim on parts of Laddakh under its occupation which the Parliament Of Bharat has reiterated to take back.

Notwithstanding Bharatiya Army’s initial claims that these intrusions were localised the well planned , coordinated and simultaneous activating different sectors at about the same time is clear case of planning at a highest level and certainly not by rogue local military commanders. It is certainly Planned escalatory behaviour.

Sudden conciliatory tone from the Chinese, after months of intrusion, has been triggered largely by various geopolitical consideration as well as Isolation of China on Corona origin and is very much part of its design to relieve some domestic pressure because of mishandling of corona crisis.

Like in 1962, 1965, and 1999, we have once again been surprised by enemy both at the strategic and tactical levels leading to rushing of reinforcements from other sectors . Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) failed to detect the build-up of the PLA formations and inadequacy of tactical surveillance both through UAVs and patrols to detect such large scale movement close to the LAC. The ITBP mans the border which is not under the command of the army.

Its first time since 1999 Kargil that our territory is under foreign soldiers control .As long as Chinese troops continue occupying the territory usurped during recent incursion and unless Chinese withdraw, Bharat should not rest and lower it’s guard in any manner till it reclaim every inch of its territory. Should we wait and watch or show our resolve to retake our territory as we did in 1999?